Bail-Out or Work-Out? Theoretical Considerations

In recent years, we appear to have entered an era of capital account crises. In response, a number of new crisis resolution ideas have been put forward, including the establishment of supranational institutions such as an international lender of last resort or an international bankruptcy court, temporary payments standstills and the inclusion of collective action clauses in debt contracts. This paper assesses these proposals using a theoretical model of crisis. The model underscores the importance of adapting policy interventions to the nature of the crisis at hand. For example, it finds that payments standstills and last-resort lending are an equally efficient means of dealing with liquidity crises, both ex-ante and ex-post, while creditor committees are second-best. It finds that debt-write-downs are a preferred means of dealing with solvency crises than subsidized IMF financing because of the negative moral hazard implications of the latter tool. And it finds that international bankruptcy court proposals may be superior to contractual approaches in securing such write-downscrisis resolution, international lender of last resort, standstills, IMF

Customer premises services market demand assessment 1980 - 2000. Volume 1: Executive summary

Estimates of market demand for domestic civilian telecommunications services for the years 1980 to 2000 are provided. Overall demand, demand or satellite services, demand for satellite delivered Customer Premises Service (CPS), and demand for 30/20 GHz Customer Premises Services are covered. Emphasis is placed on the CPS market and demand is segmented by market, by service, by user class and by geographic region. Prices for competing services are discussed and the distribution of traffic with respect to distance is estimated. A nationwide traffic distribution model for CPS in terms of demand for CPS traffic and earth stations for each of the major SMSAs in the United States are provided

Data Mining and Official Statistics: The Past, the Present and the Future

Along with the increasing availability of large databases under the purview of National Statistical Institutes, the application of data mining techniques to official statistics is now a hot topic that is far more important at present than it was ever before. Presented in this article is a thorough review of published work to date on the application of data mining in official statistics, and on identification of the techniques that have been explored. In addition, the importance of data mining to official statistics is flagged and a summary of the challenges that have hindered its development over the course of the last two decades is presented

Convergence to stable laws for multidimensional stochastic recursions: the case of regular matrices

Given a sequence $(M_{n},Q_{n})_{n\ge 1}$ of i.i.d.\ random variables with generic copy $(M,Q) \in GL(d, \R) \times \R^d$, we consider the random difference equation (RDE) $$R_{n}=M_{n}R_{n-1}+Q_{n},$$ $n\ge 1$, and assume the existence of $\kappa >0$ such that \lim_{n \to \infty}(\E{\norm{M_1 ... M_n}^\kappa})^{\frac{1}{n}} = 1 . We prove, under suitable assumptions, that the sequence $S_n = R_1 + ... + R_n$, appropriately normalized, converges in law to a multidimensional stable distribution with index $\kappa$. As a by-product, we show that the unique stationary solution $R$ of the RDE is regularly varying with index $\kappa$, and give a precise description of its tail measure. This extends the prior work http://arxiv.org/abs/1009.1728v3 .Comment: 15 page

Validation and reconstruction of flow meter data in the Barcelona water distribution network

12 páginas, 16 figuras, 1 tabla.-- El PDF es la versión pre-print.-- et al.This paper presents a signal analysis methodology to validate (detect) and reconstruct the missing and false data of a large set of flow meters in the telecontrol system of a water distribution network. The proposed methodology is based on two time-scale forecasting models: a daily model based on a ARIMA time series, while the 10-min model is based on distributing the daily flow using a 10-min demand pattern. The demand patterns have been determined using two methods: correlation analysis and an unsupervised fuzzy logic classification, named LAMDA algorithm. Finally, the proposed methodology has been applied to the Barcelona water distribution network, providing very good results.This work is part of a applied research project granted by ADASA and AGBAR companies. The authors also wish to thank the support received by the Research Commission of the Generalitat of Catalunya (Group SAC Ref. 2009 SGR 1491) and by CICYT (Ref. HYFA DPI2008-01996 and WATMAN DPI2009-13744) of Spanish Ministry of Education.Peer reviewe

Validation and reconstruction of flow meter data in the Barcelona water distribution network

This paper presents a signal analysis methodology to validate (detect) and reconstruct the missing and false data of a large set of flow meters in the telecontrol system of a water distribution network. The proposed methodology is based on two time-scale forecasting models: a daily model based on a ARIMA time series, while the 10-min model is based on distributing the daily flow using a 10-min demand pattern. The demand patterns have been determined using two methods: correlation analysis and an unsupervised fuzzy logic classification, named LAMDA algorithm. Finally, the proposed methodology has been applied to the Barcelona water distribution network, providing very good results.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author’s final draft

Early evolution of Coriariaceae (Cucurbitales) in light of a new early Campanian (ca. 82 Mya) pollen record from Antarctica

Coriariaceae comprise only Coriaria , a genus of shrubs with nine species in Australasia (but excluding Australia), five in the Himalayas, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Japan, one in the Mediterranean, and one ranging from Patagonia to Mexico. The sister family, Corynocarpaceae, comprises five species of evergreen trees from New Guinea to New Zealand and Australia. This distribution has long fascinated biogeographers as potential support for Wegener's theory of continental drift, with alternative scenarios invoking either Antarctic or Beringian range expansions. Here, we present the discovery of pollen grains from Early Campanian (ca. 82 Mya) deposits in Antarctica, which we describe as Coriaripites goodii sp. nov., and newly generated nuclear and plastid molecular data for most of the family's species and its outgroup. This greatly expands the family's fossil record and is the so far oldest fossil of the order Cucurbitales. We used the phylogeny, new fossil, and an Oligocene flowering branch assigned to a small subclade of Coriaria to generate a chronogram and to study changes in chromosome number, deciduousness, and andromonoecy. Coriaria comprises a Northern (NH) and a Southern Hemisphere (SH) clade that diverged from each other in the Paleocene (ca. 57 Mya), with the SH clade reaching the New World once, through Antarctica, as supported by the fossil pollen. While the SH clade retained perfect flowers and evergreen leaves, the NH clade evolved andromonoecy and deciduousness. Polyploidy occurs in both clades and points to hybridization, matching weak species boundaries throughout the genus

The materiality of the intangible: Literary metaphor in multimodal texts

Based on a larger practice-based research project in digital writing, this article examines how the materiality of digital media contributes to a layered metaphor that delivers meaning, reflects on the cognitive processes (the writer’s and the reader’s) of navigation and generates a dynamic narrative structure through multimodality, unnatural narration and user interaction. Many writers and artists engage with their chosen medium through an instinctive understanding of the materials at hand, gained through experience; the explicit study of a medium’s materiality is not always required for artistic success, however, that may be judged. This article offers insights into the creative process of creating digital, multimodal fiction, based on a practice-based research project designed to explore the effects of digital media on author and text, and argues that digital media have a significant effect on the outcome of the artefact itself. Awareness of these effects, their variations according to hardware and software, and the affordances of these various materials offer the digital writer greater insight and capability to craft his/her texts for the desired metaphorical meaning

An application of kernel methods to variety identification based on SSR markers genetic fingerprinting

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In crop production systems, genetic markers are increasingly used to distinguish individuals within a larger population based on their genetic make-up. Supervised approaches cannot be applied directly to genotyping data due to the specific nature of those data which are neither continuous, nor nominal, nor ordinal but only partially ordered. Therefore, a strategy is needed to encode the polymorphism between samples such that known supervised approaches can be applied. Moreover, finding a minimal set of molecular markers that have optimal ability to discriminate, for example, between given groups of varieties, is important as the genotyping process can be costly in terms of laboratory consumables, labor, and time. This feature selection problem also needs special care due to the specific nature of the data used.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>An approach encoding SSR polymorphisms in a positive definite kernel is presented, which then allows the usage of any kernel supervised method. The polymorphism between the samples is encoded through the Nei-Li genetic distance, which is shown to define a positive definite kernel between the genotyped samples. Additionally, a greedy feature selection algorithm for selecting SSR marker kits is presented to build economical and efficient prediction models for discrimination. The algorithm is a filter method and outperforms other filter methods adapted to this setting. When combined with kernel linear discriminant analysis or kernel principal component analysis followed by linear discriminant analysis, the approach leads to very satisfactory prediction models.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The main advantage of the approach is to benefit from a flexible way to encode polymorphisms in a kernel and when combined with a feature selection algorithm resulting in a few specific markers, it leads to accurate and economical identification models based on SSR genotyping.</p

Assessing the Influence of Different ROI Selection Strategies on Functional Connectivity Analyses of fMRI Data Acquired During Steady-State Conditions

In blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), assessing functional connectivity between and within brain networks from datasets acquired during steady-state conditions has become increasingly common. However, in contrast to connectivity analyses based on task-evoked signal changes, selecting the optimal spatial location of the regions of interest (ROIs) whose timecourses will be extracted and used in subsequent analyses is not straightforward. Moreover, it is also unknown how different choices of the precise anatomical locations within given brain regions influence the estimates of functional connectivity under steady-state conditions. The objective of the present study was to assess the variability in estimates of functional connectivity induced by different anatomical choices of ROI locations for a given brain network. We here targeted the default mode network (DMN) sampled during both resting-state and a continuous verbal 2-back working memory task to compare four different methods to extract ROIs in terms of ROI features (spatial overlap, spatial functional heterogeneity), signal features (signal distribution, mean, variance, correlation) as well as strength of functional connectivity as a function of condition. We show that, while different ROI selection methods produced quantitatively different results, all tested ROI selection methods agreed on the final conclusion that functional connectivity within the DMN decreased during the continuous working memory task compared to rest